5、结语与展望

　　本文将供应链上产品以原材料的形式进入供应链，到以产成品的形式交付给最终顾客的全部累积时间，看作供应链某一订单的物流时间，即供应链的订单响应时间。在此基础上建立了供应链中产品的物流过程模型，并使用产品物流在供应链中流动的转移概率，给出了一种识别供应链时间瓶颈的方法。应用该方法，不仅可以识别出供应链时间瓶颈，而且可以对时间瓶颈进行实时监控，随时找出系统中最值得进行时间压缩的流程环节，为供应链企业时间压缩提供一定的决策参考。本文为了研究方便，仅讨论了产品的直线型物流模型，而实际情况要更复杂些，需作进一步研究。此外在以下两个方面还有待继续研究：

(1)转移概率的取值对于供应链整体响应时间的影响及优化策略，以及如何根据的量值，针对性地选取有效的时间瓶颈压缩方法;

　　(2)对供应链某环节进行时间压缩后，将会导致产品流提前移动到供应链的下一个环节，必将打破下一个环节原有的生产计划，造成生产拥塞现象。如何动态协调供应链各环节的运作，使瓶颈环节上的响应能力，与非瓶颈环节响应能力，以及各环节总的响应能力相适应，使供应链系统整体响应水平达到最优。

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